Weekly Recap, Week 36

Europe’s markets eased into September with a cocktail of mixed signals: inflation refusing to quite let go, industry stuttering in spots, yet a few bright flashes in corporate boardrooms. Below: the macro pulse, market moves, notable deals and what investors will be watching next.

Macro pulse

Eurozone inflation nudged higher to 2.1% in August — just above where the monetary conversation hoped to settle — reminding markets that the European Central Bank cannot be complacent. Growth is crawling forward: the composite PMI inched to 51.0, its best print in a year, and manufacturing has finally crept back into expansionary territory. But the picture isn’t uniform: Germany’s factories remain soft (factory orders slipped about 2.9% in July), and France heads into a politically charged week with a confidence vote on 8 September that could reshape fiscal plans. Across the Channel, the Bank of England’s surveys show firms trimming headcount at the fastest pace since 2021 — a reminder the labour market is cooling even as inflation remains sticky.

Markets & money

Investors traded cautiously: Germany’s DAX eked out gains while Paris lagged and London largely drifted. Wholesale power softened through August — day-ahead prices fell in key EU hubs and both Germany and France averaged under €80/MWh for the month — and Dutch TTF gas contracts for the coming winter are parked in the low-to-mid €30s/MWh. Fiscal calendars matter, too: Berlin moved the draft 2025 federal budget through committee, keeping government investment and defence spending in focus.

Deals & corporate movers

The corporate stage was busy. Italy’s MediaForEurope (MFE) pushed past the crucial threshold and now controls roughly three quarters of ProSiebenSat.1 — a clear step toward building a pan-European, ad-funded broadcast platform. Airbus had a quieter August on deliveries — about 61 jets in the month (434 YTD) — leaving it with a sprint to hit an ambitious annual target, even after a large 90-jet order from lessor Avolon. In services, American Express Global Business Travel completed its roughly $540m acquisition of CWT, consolidating two of Europe’s top travel-management firms. Private-equity style industrial consolidation kept up: Munich’s Mutares agreed to buy Kawneer EU from Arconic, with closing expected in Q4. And Shell continued to prioritise capital returns, sustaining sizeable share buybacks under its programme.

Looking ahead

Watchlist for next week: France (Sept 8) — the confidence vote could change the government’s fiscal roadmap; Germany — the 2025 budget debate will test investment vs. consolidation priorities; and the ECB — with inflation sitting just above 2%, officials’ rhetoric on rate timing will be pivotal. On the corporate side, Airbus’s monthly delivery cadence and any fresh M&A ripples will keep markets scanning the headlines.