Monday Briefing, Week 45

📰 Macro / Geopolitical Highlights

The EU has unveiled a Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030, aimed at making Europe self-reliant in defense within the decade. Key elements include boosting drone defense programs and joint procurement to ensure interoperability. AP News
This aligns with the broader Readiness 2030 initiative (formerly “ReArm Europe”), which seeks to mobilize up to €800 billion in new defense investment across the bloc. Wikipedia
In recent remarks to the Nordic Council, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen praised the Nordics’ leadership in preparedness and stressed their strategic importance in Arctic and security domains. Norden

Nordic leaders have firmly opposed issuing joint EU debt to help finance a €140 billion reparations loan to Ukraine. Instead, they favor using frozen Russian assets as a funding source. euronews
For the Nordics, the idea of common borrowing raises concerns about fiscal burden sharing and long-term liabilities. euronews

Rail Nordica, a project to convert Finland’s Russian-gauge lines to standard European gauge, is gaining renewed urgency. It is justified not only economically, but also by military mobility and logistics needs in the NATO and EU context. Wikipedia
In energy/tech development, a recent expert meeting stressed the importance of enabling rural 5G deployment, with national governments needing to support municipalities in balancing infrastructure rollouts. nordregio.org

European equities opened modestly higher on Monday, with the STOXX 600 index up ~0.4%, buoyed by positive earnings and optimism that chipmaker Nexperia’s China plants may resume shipments. Reuters
Broader markets were largely stable, as investors await fresh manufacturing data and central bank signals. Investing.com
Germany's DAX is showing slight gains, while France’s CAC 40 dipped marginally. Investing.com

Telenor ASA reported Q3 results showing steady performance in its Nordic business, but flagged softness in its Asian operations due to FX and spectrum cost pressures. Simply Wall St
Finnish company Aspo Plc announced a share buyback program (4 November 2025 – 30 April 2026) to support its incentive plans. aspo.com
Citigroup is reinforcing its footprint in the Nordics by hiring leadership for its Nordic investment banking division. FN London

Finland continues to struggle with a persistently high unemployment rate of ~9.9% (September). It also faces subdued growth and rising public deficits. Reuters
Denmark, meanwhile, has cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 3 % to 1.4 %, citing troubles at major pharma firm Novo Nordisk and export headwinds. Reuters
Still, Danish officials argue the economy is strong, supported by low debt levels and past fiscal surpluses. Reuters
From a forward-looking perspective, the Nordic Outlook 2025/26 expects global growth near 3 %, with Europe facing fragmentation risks and persistent structural challenges. sebgroup.com

Eurozone & Regional Manufacturing Surveys
Is European industrial activity holding up? PMI and manufacturing data scheduled later this week will be closely watched.
Central Bank Messaging
Markets will parse language from the ECB, Sweden’s Riksbank (rate decision Wednesday), and possibly Norges Bank for hints on interest rate shifts.
Ukraine & Russia Asset Debate
Will the EU succeed in directing Russian frozen assets toward reconstruction and reparations? The legal and political dynamics remain murky.
Defense & Budget Flexibility
Can member states shift cohesion or structural funds toward defense goals? The trade-offs will provoke debates at national capitals.
Earnings Surprises
With many European and Nordic firms about to report it’s a key earnings week; surprises (positive or negative) may trigger volatility.