Daily Summary, July 16

Good morning. Global markets are trading cautiously as investors digest fresh inflation data from the United States, while European equities test new highs. In the Nordics, private equity continues to make headlines, and EU policy tensions are rising again over sanctions and energy strategy. Here is your essential morning briefing to start the trading day informed.

📈 Market Snapshot

  • European equities mixed ahead of key U.S. data: European futures indicate a varied open following U.S. factory inflation and consumer price data. Eyes now turn to Thursday’s U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), with implications for interest-rate expectations. In London, the FTSE 100 hit an intraday record (~9 017) but slipped back amid concerns over U.S. inflation—now flashing 2.7 % in June—with core CPI holding at 2.9 %.

đŸ‡ȘđŸ‡ș Europe Macro & Policy

  • UK inflation steady: UK Consumer Price Index for June is expected to hold at 3.4 %, adding weight to the Bank of England’s cautious stance.

  • “Leeds reforms”: Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled sweeping financial-services reforms aimed at boosting retail investment and fintech, easing bank red tape, and allowing more ISA investment in long‑term assets starting next year.

  • EU sanctions package stalled: Slovakia has blocked the 18th sanctions package against Russia, delaying proposals to phase out Russian gas imports by 2028. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed “sadness,” while NATO flags potential secondary sanctions for those obstructing peace talks.

🇳🇮 Nordics in Focus

  • Nordic fans feel the heat: At the Women’s Euro 2025 in Switzerland, Nordic supporters are struggling with steep bills—hot dogs at CHF 8.00 and beer at CHF 6.00—underscoring that Switzerland currently ranks as Europe’s most expensive location for consumer goods.

  • Private equity momentum: Nordic Capital continues its acquisition spree—November 2024’s Max Matthiessen (Finland), February’s U.S. IP management software firm Anaqua (~USD 3 billion), and July’s recent target, Arcadia in healthcare IT.
    → What it means: Heavy deployment of Nordics’ dry powder—watch for further cross-border initiatives.

🔍 Trade, Tariffs & Trade Wars

  • EU–U.S. vehicle tariffs taking toll: Car exports via Port of Antwerp–Bruges have dropped ~16% in H1 2025, with heavy machinery shipments down ~31%, highlighting spillover effects of U.S. import tariffs.

  • Tariff-driven inflation ripple: Tariff-related CPI increases are fueling concern. U.S. consumers saw price rises in coffee and couches, but not cars, shifting focus to PPI data that could lock in pressure and deter rate cuts by the Fed.

💡 Commodities & Currencies

  • Gold on the rise: Kauppalehti reports gold prices rallying to new highs. Analysts highlight potential further gains for precious metals amid safe-haven flows.
    → Nordic investors: Monitor EWCs and Europe/trade-driven currency volatility that might influence gold demand.

Insights for Investors

  • Central banks remain vigilant: BoE already cautious on inflation. ECB watching energy/supply trends and digital/defence investment outlook.

  • Trade policy in sharper focus: Ongoing tariff tensions between the U.S. and EU/Nordics could meaningfully affect exports, particularly in autos and industrial tech.

  • Nordic deal activity: Private equity momentum from firms like Nordic Capital signals both opportunity and valuation risks—track upcoming exits and fund closings.

Stay agile today—global PPI and UK CPI outcomes will inform European equity and fixed‑income positioning. Privately, follow Nordic M&A developments and commodity flows related to energy and gold.

Let me know if you’d like updates on specific regional sectors or companies as trading progresses.